Friday, March 21, 2008

More AL only Sleepers

In a non k AL only there are some good deep sleepers. If you want to stay away from the AL East there are some other guys of interest in those other divisions. I guess a lot of these guys qualify as "deep sleepers".

AL West
SEA- Carlos Silva- He is shitty but will win 12 games and since you don't have ks who cares about his lack thereof..
Washburn- see above
M Bautista- see above
Jeff Weaver-see above (maybe traded)
Chae Sung Baek- If healthy worth a gamble. Just don't count on more than 15 starts from him. He seems pretty delicate.

LAA
Joe Saunders- Buy in. Lots of GBs good team. Buy
Ervin Santana- worth a flier. If he can get it together on the road there is tremendous upside.
Nick Adenhart- the Halos #1 pitching prospect. Could be special, track this kid. Buy if it is a deep keeper league.
Jered Weaver- I love this kid this year. Buy in. the ace of the Halos if Lackey is cooked.

TEX
Just stay away here the only kid worth tracking is Matt Harrison He could emerge quick. He pitched well all winter and fall and has some projectability. Starting the year in maybe AA. Draft for keeper purposes.

OAK
I am not crazy about this team's pitching. Watch a couple of guys though
Eveland- looks like he has the 5th SP job. Nice rates in the minors but his value is tied to ks so only moderately worth it for you.
Andrew Brown- Sleeper alert. Could end up closing games for the A's. Great rates lots of Ks. Just track him. deep sleeper.

AL Central
MIN-
Slowey is the man. Go the extra dollar. He is perfect for your format. own this dude this year, you will freeze him next year.
Humber- pitching well in the spring keep him on your radar if he makes the team.
Nick Blackburn- Will begin the year in AAA but could be a good one. Classic Twins prospect. great control, not overpowering stuff, good mound presence. Trackable guy especially in Min. Upside is #3 SP so dubious for keeper purposes.
Anthony Swarzak- Deep Sleeper. Big time prospect took a step back last year busted smoking weed, he may be the #1 P prospect in their system.
Buy for the long term. Think Matt Garza with a 3rd pitch. A keeper.
Glen Perkins- Crafty LHP. Big K #s so he may not be great for you but he can pitch if healthy.

CLE
No real sleepers here

Bryd/C Lee/Westbrook- the same dude cloned essentially. If I had to pick I like Westbrook he could maybe win 15 games. Proven innings eater worth owning in an AL league.
Adam Miller- Stud prospect. If he is pitching well in the minors he could be a nice call up
Tony Sipp/Chuck Lofgren I like both these kids. They are both positively underwhelming when you watch them but LHP with guile are wirth tracking. Watch Sipp especially, he is returning from arm surgery and if he finds his control he could come quick.
Aaron Laffey- Worth a flier, think Westbrook light.

CWS
Jon Danks- I like him but wouldn't take the chance in a non-K league
Gavin Floyd- See above

DET
Denny Bautista- Former uber prospect finally getting it all together. Seems destined for the bullpen, but a dark horse for saves in DET.

KC
I like some dudes here
Hochevar- Buy now. He will find the rotation eventually and he can be good. Think of him as a really young AJ Burnett. similar profile , less ks, almost as crazy, etc.
Grienke- Love him. Buy. Will take the next step up this year. Go an extra $.
Leo Nunez- Deep sleeper. Young lanky southpaw can bring the gas. could be #1 LHP in their bullpen this year.

I'll skip the AL east here but those are some sleepers. I've got more if you need them but there is some stuff here.

Sleeper ideas for pitching

4 sleeper saves sources.

Harden (he would be great and maybe could stay healthy for like 2 months)it may take a trade.

Andrew Brown OAK- Just has that kind of stuff. has made big strides with his control and is just overpowering when on. Former uber prospect.

If Street goes down or gets traded 1 of these 2 guys should get a look over Santiago Cassilla.

Dan Wheeler- I mean all thats in front of him is Percival and Al Reyes. Will be saving games in June. Darkhorse for saves in TB is Garza.

Lastly Denny Bautista (DET)- I mean if Todd Jones goes down he is the only guy there. Keeps the ball down, strikes guys out, has harnessed his control. It could happen. Another former uber prospect.

Some SP sleepers.
Wil Ledezma. is it me or has this guy been around since like 1996? Hes only 25. He's a southpaw, he can crank it up, great ballpark SD, Great bullpen, could be good.

Anthony Reyes- All right so I own him so I'm biased but the kid has skills. It might happen this year.

Luke Hochevar- GB machine with k ability. Will find his way into the rotation and stick. track this guy. Think a half season of Gil Meche once he makes the rotation.

Those are some dudes that I'm watching.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Top 25 AL AP

top 25 AL SP goes something like this. Not in order of preference

1-Verlander-Probably my #1 AL SP. just a solid P. I have some concerns over the Tigers Bullpen. Todd Jones and ??? Trading for a RP isn't that hard but it could prove to be a frustrating run until Dombrowski finds some bullpen.
2-Bedard- Tread carefully. his last 4 seasons include An MCL sprain and 2 oblique strains. Never has been over 200 ip. tough to be a true stud when you aren't on the bump. That said his skills are awesome and if he goes 200ip he will win the CY.
3-Kazmir- BUY BUY BUY. This is the best SP in the AL if he is healthy. Monitor his elbow. Either the pick of a draft or you are just throwing away $$ if he goes down. Risk/Reward
4-Beckett-I don't love him but you can't deny his skills, talent, and the Sox being a good team. Watch his back but you could do far worse. Be prepared for a slight step back. Maybe somewhere between 06-07.
5-CC- I love this guy. Hall of Famer. next guy to win 300 games right here. The only concern I have is the 250ip last season which is a ton and 60 more than he had ever done previous. expect a 2nd half fade from the big man. He'll still finish the year as a top 10 AL SP.
6-King Felix- Upside anyone. He feels almost disappointing but there is no way a 23 yo in MLB is a disappointment. He will consolidate his skills one of these years. or he will get hurt. which comes 1st is anyone's guess. That said in an AL league he may 1 of the best SP to target. great upside. great potent high k/high GB combo.
7-Dice K- I love him. The Sox ace right here. 18w 200k 3.85era. He will improve by a good amount. BUY BUY BUY
8-Javi Vazquez- Same old Javi. He owns the skills, he just needs to be consistent. DO NOT buy his 2nd half run of dominance. Buy for a stat line between 06-07. Still a real nice SP. Ks, ratios. he is nice. Tough ballpark though, can give you a little bit of a headache. consistent.
9-Lackey- STAY AWAY. Never missed a start in 5 years and now has elbow, triceps issues. If I had to guess I would say this year will be a lost year for Lackey. If healthy I love the guy but there are a lot of innings on that arm. Watch out.
10-J Shields- This is my guy. He is just nice. So much more than the sum of his parts. Great mound composure, 3 plus pitches, attacks hitters, throws strikes, stamina, durable. even more upside than last season. Buy if you can. good enough to be a #1in an AL league
11-K Escobar- I don't know. I'm not buying. So much risk and not even that huge a reward. I'm pretty tepid
12-AJ-Buy. If you can deal with the erratic health. Worth noting. If you track his pitch counts you can sit him for a start if he goes over 110 pitches. He usually comes back with a stinker. If he gets 33 starts he could win the CY. I love the k/GB combination. Same as King Felix. take a shot here. he may be pitching for a contract.
13-Halladay-Steady as they come. An absolute ratio anchor. He doesn't strike out a ton of guys but you can do a lot worse. He anchors your ratios enough that you can chase some ks with the likes of Matt Garza and Daniel Cabrera, etc. I'm in the minority but I think he is still top 10 pitchers in baseball.
14-F Liriano- Tread careful. Could be worth it but isn't cheap. TJS survivors usually find the control last so expect some bouts of trouble. Also worth noting: The Twins will not let him pitch more than 165 ip coming off of surgery so temper your total expectations.
15-McGowan Tough division, but this is a pretty good 3rd SP. He could take a step back (see first half 07) or he could become a real force (see 2nd half of 07) His stuff is nice, go an extra buck here.
16-Carmona- A horse. think Derek Lowe. they are pretty close to the same guy. they don't look like it but they really are the same person. Same sort of idea applies here as with Halladay. Ratio anchor, high wins, low ks. with him and Halladay you can chase those ks.
17-Bonderman- I love this guy this year. People are down on him after last years' fade. He could be great this year. he's unveiled a change that is the pitch he has been missing. look for a plus season. In an AL league with thin SP I am going after this guy. potentially good value this year. Upside- Think Beckett 07
18-Joe Blanton- Steady if unspectacular. Don't buy for 16 wins maybe 13. Dubious team and potential to be traded out of AL so be cautious. 2nd tier option
19-Wang- Carmona light. 19 wins is 19 wins though. Plus his 1st name is Chin. if you need wins good action here.
20-Jered Weaver- Buy buy buy. He had thrown a ton of ip in 06 which led to his 07 fade. He had an easy offseason and it shows this spring. he looks great and could slide into the #1 role if Lackey and Esco both stay hurt. I would gamble with this kid.
21-Dontrelle- Buy for wins upside and be ready for his arm to fall off. I'm not enthusiastic.
22-Rich Harden- I mean I wouldn't do it but some one will. he'll be great while he pitches. Potential Yankee rumors can goose up his price. Outside shot to be closing games by end of year somewhere. I'm staying away. The AL Ben Sheets. ughhhhh
23-P Hughes- I love it. Buy buy buy. This kid has the goods. Last year was an injury fluke. He will be the best fantasy SP on the Yanks this year. The ks could pile up quickly. he can turn the corner anytime. He is as good as the Yanks claimed last year this year he will show it. IP limits could be an issue come AUG/Sept
24-Buchholtz- Same stuff applies as above. 1 note is this though- Seems like Bucholtz is slightly more popular just now but will pitch less early in the year (6 man rotation). I prefer Hughes.
25-Garza- Buy. think Kazmir 05. Keeper league target. he also can get you some ks

a couple of sleepers for you-
Grienke, Hochevar, J Saunders, Slowey, Baker, D cabrera, ervin santana, Sonnanstine, Danks

A must buy keeper-David Price TB pay whatever you need for this kid he is a true stud. Think healthy Francisco Liriano except 6'6" 240 BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY

and 1 Steve Asch Special- Dana Eveland OAK. Big southpaw who is pitching great in the spring. if he makes the squad take a shot. good k potential

and 2 last round fillers with upside
Andrew Brown OAK if the control can be solved we are talking a top 5 AL setup man
Tyler Lumsden KC Big Southpaw who has been pitching well in the spring. watch him. he could be a sneaky rotation filler.

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Bedard Trade. I'm Confused.

So about this Erik Bedard deal. I'm a little confused. I understand most of the deal but I am befuddled at the inclusion of George Sherrill.

I understand the elite LOOGYness of Sherrill I mean he is so good that he could is a legit 8th inning guy not a LH specialist. I mean this guy maybe the best lefty specialist in the game right now so his value isn't lost on me. What does confuse is why the O's want him to begin with.

The O's already have J. Walker, who incidentally is not particularly underpaid, as well as a handful of other relief options. I mean isn't having 2 really good lefty specialists the domain of elite teams, at least teams that may win more that 65 games? What is the story here?

Its almost like this is what Andy McPhail dreams of overhearing at a Baltimore sports bar on July 14th 2008-

O's Fan #1- "Man the Orioles were just dominant during innings 6,7,8 tonight huh?"
O's fan #2- "They sure were. That Walker/Hoey/Sherrill combo is lights out, I'll tell ya."
O's fan #1- "Lights out is right."
O's fan #2- " now if we only didn't get outscored 12 to 1 in innings 1,2,3,4,5,9 we may win a few games here."
O's fan #1- "I miss Kris Benson..."
O's fan #2- "I wonder where Raffy Palmiero is right now."
O's fan #1- "Dealing with a House Oversight Committee on Priapism....."
so on and so forth.

What a clusterdump.....

Maybe they want Sherrill so they can move him to a contender at mid-season. Maybe an Erick Aybar for Sherrill deal or something. Oh wait Peter Angelos runs the O's scratch that last trade idea way to smart for Big Pete.

Could they really want George to have and hold (leads) and maybe even let him get some saves. Maybe the ghost of BJ Ryan is holding McPhail up to this with supernatural threats. You know the old "I will haunt you until you get fired woooooooo-oooooo scary ghosts" routine.


Either way I'm baffled. I have no faith that Big Pete will trade Sherrill or Walker this season and the O's will just continue to put the old crab cart in front of the horse.

At least they should have a decent bullpen.


Peace Out.

Loopster1000

Pedro Feliz is worth how much??????

The Phillies signed former Giant 3b Pedro Feliz today to a 2 year $8.5 million contract. The deal, if all options and bonus are picked up, could be worth $15 mil over 3 years.

Am I alone in thinking that is insane????

This is the same Pedro Feliz who is 33 yo right? The same one who hasn't hit more than 22 hrs in a year? The career .252 hitter with an OBA of .288??? The guy with the 1.5 to 5 BB to K ration??? What is going on here??? $8.5 million. 2 years. what? Is this where we have arrived in the MLB?

Remind me to let my kid be a slick-fielding, extra-hacky 3b so I can retire comfortably to a life of golf channel and cold Michelob Lights. (maybe around my kids 33rd b-day if Pat Gillick still has a job then)

In his defense Pedro should top 22 HRs this year in the bandbox that the Phils play in. He may even help them out with his solid defense but lets consider this investment for a second. Where there no better options either in-house or on the free agent market?

There aren't a ton of other 3b free agents at the moment. Other 3b free agent luminaries include - Morgan Ensberg, Jeff Cirillo, Russell "the Muscle" Branyan, and most intriguing Dallas McPherson. So maybe the Phils got the best of the lot in Feliz. If not the best, well at least he can pick it over at the hot corner. I mean do the Phils need more offense anyway?

In house options include Wes Helms (last years Pedro Feliz moment in Philly) who is just a platoon guy these days and by these days I mean his whole career, and a few younger guys in the minors that aren't ready yet. So there is no help there either.

Maybe this Feliz deal isn't so bad is what you may be thinking.
I know I'm wondering how it came to this for the Phils. Pedro Feliz representing the lesser of many evils right now...amazing.

What about trades.... I mean this seems to be the right way for the Phils to approach this. There are myriad 3b available in trades. Joe Crede, Brandon Inge, Chad Tracy, Nomar, Freddy Sanchez just to name a few. I like the guys on this list more than Feliz but it begs the question of what is $8.5 million worth in the MLB in 2008. Is it worth less than the value of JA Happ or Carlos Ruiz? Is it easier to blow $8.5 million than trade marginal talent? The answer would seem to be yes.

I don't mean to hate on Pedro Feliz but I know Giants fans are happy to see him go and I would imagine come 2010 Phils fans will be pleased by Pedro disappearance.

Maybe it was the right move for the Phils although I doubt it. What we can be sure about is that $$$ in MLB these days are seemingly fake. It's toy money to these GMs, not the same $$$ I spend on cold 6-packs and MLB Extra Innings. It almost seems that $$$ is the bail out option for GMs who aren't inventive enough to come up with nice trades.

Well consider yourself bailed out temporarily Pat Gillick. And it only cost you $8.5 million, which in todays MLB climate is roughly 1/2 of Carlos Silva. What a steal....

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Welcome to our blog

Hi everyone-

Thanks for stopping by and checking out our blog. This blog will be a forum for discussions and analysis of baseball, both fantasy and real life versions. We would love any feedback and comments so don't be shy. Don't forget to check back everyday we will have AM and PM postings daily and hopefully will soon have a daily video blog to help you with analysis,daily roster movements, injuries (ughhh), and day to day baseball notes worthy of your attention.

We look forward to developing a solid, fun, and informative community.

Best,
Loopster1000

Lets Go Mets Go